Euro Area Research Articles

Does government spending cointegrate with bank lending? Evidence from Eurozone panel data

PurposeOur purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.Design/methodology/approachFiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.FindingsOur findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.Originality/valueIn this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.

How does monetary policy affect income and wealth inequality? Evidence from quantitative easing in the euro area

SummaryThis paper evaluates the impact of quantitative easing on income and wealth of individual euro area households. We first estimate the aggregate effects of a quantitative easing (QE) shock, identified by means of external instruments, in a multi‐country vector autoregression (VAR) model with unemployment, wages, gross operating surplus, interest rates, house prices, and stock prices. We then distribute the aggregate effects across households using a reduced‐form simulation on micro‐data, which captures the portfolio composition, the income composition, and the earnings heterogeneity channels of transmission. The earnings heterogeneity channel is important: QE compresses the income distribution because many households with lower incomes become employed. In contrast, monetary policy has only negligible effects on the Gini coefficient for wealth: While high‐wealth households benefit from higher stock prices, middle‐wealth households benefit from higher house prices.

The Euro Area 12: A Comparative Assessment of Its Member States in the Period 1998–2022

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998–2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related to economic growth and the business cycle, exploring the presence of hysteresis. To achieve these objectives, a novel approach is employed, which integrates the analysis of both growth and cycles. This approach involves using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) model to estimate a translog production frontier and assess the impact of lagging output gaps on the potential output or capacity for each of the MS considered. The data used to estimate each frontier and analyze growth decomposition consist of quarterly data filtered using the Kalman filter. The results reveal that lagging output gaps, occurring one or two quarters prior, significantly affect the potential output or capacity of the EA-12 MS, thereby supporting the existence of hysteresis. However, the impacts appear to be minimal. Furthermore, the research concludes that changes in total factor productivity (TFP), mainly due to technical change, play a more crucial role in the growth of MS that are net contributors to the EU budget. Conversely, total factor accumulation (TFA), mainly physical capital accumulation, has a more pronounced impact on the growth of MS net recipients from the EU budget. Interestingly, the heterogeneity observed among the EA-12 MS extends beyond the simple division between net contributors and net recipients of the EU budget. This heterogeneity raises questions about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ability to stabilize the economies of these various MS solely through conventional monetary policy.

Consumer and business confidence connectedness in the euro area: a tale of two crises

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectedness framework and the improved method based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model. Findings The authors find that although the evolution of business confidence marked the GFC and the ESDC the role of consumer confidence (mainly in those countries with stricter containment and closure measures) increased in the COVID-19-induced crisis. Originality/value The findings are related to the different origins of the examined crisis periods, and the analysis of their interrelationship is a very relevant topic for future research.

Buying into new ideas: the ECB’s evolving justification of unlimited liquidity

Abstract In 2012, Draghi put an end to rising euro area sovereign bond yield spreads by resolving to do ‘whatever it takes’. The crisis rhetoric and institutional practices of unlimited liquidity have since become commonplace, as countermeasures to recent market turmoil show. This article sets out to explain how and why ‘unlimited liquidity’ ideas moved to the ECB’s center of economic analysis during the euro crisis. Previous work fails to decipher that the ideational shift was highly anomalous when viewed against German ordoliberalism or scholarly support for ‘expansionary austerity’. Addressing this relative neglect in other accounts, we draw on qualitative text analysis and expert interviews to argue that this shift was due to norm entrepreneurs who capitalized on the uncertainty of the crisis. We employ constructivist arguments to identify four scoping conditions that account for the ascendance of ‘unlimited liquidity’: an indicative reference, credibility, institutional positioning and—as an extension to the literature—intellectual sensitivity. Our analysis suggests that the euro crisis changed economic ideas, and fundamentally remodels the constructivist framework for studying monetary policy in crisis times.

EU Economic Governance as a Supranational Determinant of Health Inequalities in the Eurozone.

The pandemic raises the question of the problematic social toll of austerity for health in the South of Europe. Has EU economic governance constrained health spending fuelling inequalities, in turn, shaping responses to the pandemic? EU economic governance is often dismissed as ineffective due to its poor track record of compliance. Yet, austerity is blamed for negative health outcomes. I show the EU fiscal rule is a determinant of health by impacting of fiscal policies of European countries. Firstly, the analysis of EU Member States 1995-2018 shows austerity policies impact health spending and health inequalities. Euro area countries under the EU Excessive Deficit Procedure significantly consolidate their health spending. The contractionary effect is concentrated in Southern countries, contributing to rising health inequalities across the core and periphery. Finally, the analysis shows the pandemic implications of health inequalities as periphery countries with a high track record of consolidation display more stringent (and costly) Covid-19 response models. The analysis contributes to understanding the supranational determinants of health in the EU, showing the pervasive spill over effects of the fiscal framework on national health policies.

Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs

Like other central banks, the ECB resorted to asset purchase programs (APPs) to replace conventional policy measures. We examine their impact on the Euro area with a focus on the heterogeneity among its constituents and across financial markets. Our analysis combines a Bayesian structural VAR with an identification scheme based on market surprises at the announcement time, effectively capturing structural dynamics. At the Euro area level, APPs stimulate the economy, lower government bond yields, elevate stock prices, and reduce corporate and sovereign stress. The impact shows heterogeneity in the stock market with a widened value-growth spread in stocks and varying sector impacts, particularly favoring financial stocks, and across countries with stronger effects on southern Euro area countries. Our results show strong spillover effects between countries, indicating challenges in the precise targeting of APPs.

Macroeconomic impacts of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area in times of shifting policies: a SVAR approach

This paper analyses the impacts of monetary and fiscal policy of the euro area on output and inflation between 2005 and 2022 using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. We employ three alternative indicators of monetary policy, alongside government spending and revenue as fiscal variables to estimate the effects across different subperiods. The findings reveal that monetary policy tightening produces a negative and delayed effect on both output and inflation, with the effects differing across alternative monetary policy indicators in terms of duration and magnitude. A fiscal revenue shock is found to be inflationary, whereas a fiscal spending shock initially has a negative effect on growth that later turns positive, but is short-lived. The effects of fiscal policy shocks are more substantial than the effects of monetary policy shocks. The results also suggest that the effects may differ across subperiods, depending on the nature and intensity of the policy shifts.

Macroprudential capital regulation and fiscal balances in the euro area

We examine the fiscal footprint of macroprudential policy in euro area countries arising through the bond market channel (Reis, 2021). Using local projections, we estimate impulse responses of the fiscal balance to an unexpected tightening in macroprudential capital regulation. Our findings suggest a dichotomy between country groups. In peripheral countries, the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratio deteriorates after a restrictive capital-based macroprudential policy shock. Since banks are important investors in domestic government debt, the shift in the public budget toward higher borrowing after the innovation might pose a threat to financial stability to the extent that sovereign risk increases. By contrast, in core countries, the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratio barely reacts to a sudden tightening in capital regulation.

The impact of oil shocks on the stock market

This paper investigates the reaction of real stock returns and their volatility in the three main euro area economies (France, Germany and Italy), the U.K. and the U.S. to oil price changes caused by different shocks in the supply-side and demand-side of the global crude oil market, including the shock on the demand for oil inventories. Our findings suggest that the impact of oil supply and aggregate demand shocks on real stock returns and volatility are not altered when oil inventories are explicitly considered in the modeling of global crude oil market. However, the effects of oil-specific demand shocks on real stock returns are modified by the inclusion of oil inventories in the model, stressing the importance of the uncertainty channel in the link between the oil and stock markets. Finally, oil inventory shocks have a negative impact at medium time horizons on real stock returns, as the surge in the price of oil causes depletion of inventories.

The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the fiscal positions in the euro area countries

Motivation: The selection of the topic stems from the threat of a debt crisis in the euro area, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main research hypothesis has been formulated as follows: the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant deterioration of the fiscal situation in all euro area countries, which has led to a debt crisis within the zone.Aim: The main purpose of the article is to analyze and assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the fiscal positions of the euro area countries, primarily from the perspective of the fiscal rules included in the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact.Results: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp economic collapse in the eurozone in 2020. Consequently, fiscal rules were suspended, allowing the member countries to undertake significant fiscal interventions to mitigate the effects of the crisis. The pandemic thus forced the authorities in these countries to employ Keynesian methods to sustain the economy. As a result of the severe recession and the temporary emergency measures taken, public finances in the member states suffered significantly. The huge increase in the public debt ratios of some of these countries did not trigger a new debt crisis, however. The new system of economic governance, which enabled the establishment and use of innovative stabilization instruments at supranational level, proved to be of great support here. The main research hypothesis has not been therefore entirely confirmed. The mutually reinforcing effects of the eurozone’s fiscal policy and monetary policy were crucial for mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 crisis in its countries and supporting the economic recovery thereof in 2021–2022. The rapid development of the crisis has revealed the difficulties in the application of fiscal policy assessment indicators. Changes in the surveillance should lead to improved regulatory clarity and reduced regulatory complexity.

The nexus between inflation and financial integration in the euro area

ABSTRACT This paper employs wavelet coherence analysis to examine the co-movement of inflation and financial integration (FI) in the Euro area. We measure FI using the ECB’s integration indicators. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between inflation and FI varies over time, presenting a dynamic nature. The link between inflation and FI intensifies during crisis. We find a limited impact of inflation on money market integration while documenting a significant adverse effect on bond and equity market integration.

Do Recessions and Bear Markets Occur Concurrently across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach

Abstract We introduce a novel multinomial logistic model for detecting and forecasting concurrent recessions and bear markets across multiple countries. Our framework leverages cross-country panel features and provides additional information for robust analysis. Through a comprehensive simulation study, we demonstrate the computational efficiency and accuracy of our model, even when handling multiple binary indicators. Applying our framework to empirical data from the United States, the UK, and Euro Area, we find that the multinomial logistic model produces superior medium-term forecasting of concurrent recession and bear market events across countries compared to multiple independent single logistic models. Additionally, our counterfactual analysis reveals that specific events, such as a recession and bear market in the United States, along with the tightening of financial conditions and a negative interest rate spread in the United States, increase the probability of concurrent and individual recession and bear market occurrences in the UK and Euro Area.

Uncertainty spill-overs: When policy and financial realms overlap

No matter its source, financial- or policy-related, uncertainty can feed onto itself, leading to identification challenges in empirical applications. We add to the stock of analytical methods able to disentangle among various types of uncertainty shocks by proposing an identification approach based on a combination of zero and absolute magnitude restrictions implemented in a multi-country setting. We find evidence of sizable spill-overs within the Euro Area (EA) arising from country-specific uncertainty shocks, with financial realm being a more important source than the policy realm. By leveraging on the flexibility of our approach, we show how important is a correct identification of each uncertainty shock type. A comparison between the on-impact responses of sovereign yields for EA members and non-members suggests that the common currency area likely features institutional arrangements and mechanisms that can initially blur the thin line separating uncertainty shock types. Because we find ECB reactions were not likely to be conditioned by the type of the uncertainty shock hitting a particular country, but by its potential to spill over abroad, we believe ECB has filled the leadership vacuum by doing “whatever it takes” to prevent fragmentation of the EA.

Impact of higher capital buffers on banks’ lending and risk-taking in the short- and medium-term: Evidence from the euro area experiments

We study the impact of higher capital buffers on bank lending and risk-taking behaviour, at different time horizons following the initial policy decision. Employing a regression discontinuity design and confidential centralised supervisory data for euro area banks from 2014 to 2017, our research uniquely explores the effects of the EU policy on other systemically important institutions (O-SIIs) through a quasi-randomised experiment, exploiting the induced policy change and discontinuity of the O-SII identification process. Our findings show that the introduction of the O-SII buffers resulted in a short-term reduction in credit supply to households and financial sector, followed by a medium-term shift towards less risky borrowers, particularly in the household sector. We find a temporary cut in loan growth post-capital hikes, succeeded by a rebound in the medium-term. Our results substantiate the hypothesis that higher capital buffers can positively discipline banks by reducing risk-taking in the medium-term. At the same time, evidence suggests a limited adverse impact on the real economy, characterised by a temporary reduction in credit supply restricted to instances of macroprudential policy tightening.

Make-up of fiscal integration in the European Union

The present article aims to expose current trends in fiscal integration in the EU. Its milestones are brought forward, with particular attention being paid to the “NextGenerationEU” recovery plan, the latter constituting Brussels' key response to the socio-economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The article evaluates whether this program is going to remain a temporary phenomenon and to what extent it can define the “new normal” for the Economic and Monetary Union. Due to the Ukrainian crisis, the suggestions are spelled out more insistently to provide Brussels with “fiscal capacity” or permanent fiscal mechanisms that could repel emerging challenges and threats. The question that is considered here is whether we can expect such perpetual tools to become future elements of a full-scale fiscal union, bringing the euro area closer to the contours of an optimum currency area. The influence of European institutions as initiators of the integration process and the involvement of non-governmental players in it have received wider coverage in the specialized literature. Thus, in this case the role played in the process of fiscal integration by national governments is explored in more detail. For this purpose, the theory of multilevel governance and, in particular, its “dynamic” version are applied. It proves useful for identifying cases and ways in which governments can maintain control over decisions made within the integration system. The analysis confirmed that the Union has no plans to increase the issuance of the EU debt in order to replace national borrowing, or to transfer taxes from the national to the supranational level. It can be expected that in the future more active EU borrowing in financial markets will be accompanied by the measure of institutional flexibility which has now been achieved due to an intergovernmental compromise. At the same time temporary tools like NGEU and SURE are unlikely to lead to the fiscal union being completely federalized.

Regulatory and contextual factors influencing earnings and capital management decisions: evidence from the European banking sector

AbstractThis study investigates whether some regulatory and contextual features influenced Euro Area listed banks decisions to manage earnings and regulatory capital through discretionary provisions in the period 2013–2018. The new regulation factors are the pressure to increase high-quality regulatory capital (Basel III) and more timely recognition of loan losses (IFRS 9). The contextual features are the intensified banking competition at a national level, and the significant money market pressure. Results demonstrate that the pressure to increase high-quality regulatory capital for banks with lower Common Equity Tier 1 capital (CET1) in year t − 1 is negatively associated with upward earnings and capital management in year t. The more timely recognition of loan losses in year t compared to year t + 1 is negatively associated with upward earnings and capital management in year t. The strengthening of banking competition is positively associated with upward earnings management, but not associated with upward capital management. The increasing money market pressure is negatively associated with upward earnings management, but not associated with upward capital management. This study should be helpful to standard-setters, regulators, investors and academics interested in incentives and constraints to earnings and capital management by providing evidence regarding how listed banks reacted to the regulatory, accounting, and contextual factors, observed holistically during a unique historical period (i.e., 2013–2018) and regulatory setting (i.e., European banking sector).

The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy

Unconventional monetary policies have now been part of the toolkit of developed economy central banks for well over a decade. The question of how their effects have changed over time is therefore an important one. This paper studies the impact of multiple forms of monetary policy surprise for the case of the ECB. I employ a semi-parametric time-varying VAR-X framework, which allows one to chart the changing responses of a broad range of financial and macroeconomic variables simultaneously. I develop high-frequency series that separate forward guidance from yield curve compression surprises – the use of the latter allows one to learn about the effects of flattening yield curves through the history of the ECB, including those induced by its Expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP). Forward guidance surprises are found to have their maximum impact on inflation when these policies were linked to the duration of the APP. Yield curve compression surprises are shown to transition from largely financial effects on equity markets and risk, to having a greater effect on prices at the time of the APP. However, the maximal effect of the APP on prices is found to occur after its maximal effect at flattening the yield curve, indicating delayed transmission.

Does extreme climate change drive the connectedness among global gold markets? Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques

With climate change increasingly becoming a major fact in financial market turmoil, this study examines the impact of extreme climate change on the connectedness among global gold markets. We utilize the TVP-VAR model to examine the connectedness and marginal risk spillover and the causality-in-quantiles test to reveal the causality. Our findings show that there exists strong connectedness among global gold markets. The gold markets of China, the U.S. and India are spillover transmitters, while the gold markets of Russia, the Euro Area, Turkey, Australia and South Africa are spillover receivers. Then marginal risk spillover results show that heterogeneity in the impacts from different periods of extreme climate, and the gold markets of the Euro Area and Russia are risk transmitters. Finally, the causality results show that extreme climate change significantly affects the spillovers among global gold markets and there exists heterogeneity in the impact of extreme climate change on gold markets of different countries (regions). Appropriate implications for policymakers and investors can be drawn from these findings.

Real-time forecast of DSGE models with time-varying volatility in GARCH form

Recent research shows that time-varying volatility plays a crucial role in non-linear modeling. Contributing to this literature, we suggest an approach that allows for straightforward computation of DSGE models with time-varying volatility, where the volatility component is formulated as a GARCH process. As an application of our approach, we examine the forecasting performance of this DSGE-GARCH model using euro area real-time data. Our findings suggest that the DSGE-GARCH approach is superior in out-of-sample forecasting performance in comparison to various other benchmarks for the forecast of inflation rates, output growth and interest rates, especially in the short term. Comparing our approach to the widely used stochastic volatility specification using in-sample forecasts, we also show that the DSGE-GARCH is superior in in-sample forecast quality and computational efficiency. In addition to these results, our approach reveals interesting properties and dynamics of time-varying correlations (conditional correlations).